Week 16 - Not Yet Profitable

The start of March was madness. Since the PSEi broke down MA100, my trades began to follow through.

PSEi Daily Chart as of April 20, 2018

iZS happened start of March 2018

Welcome to the bear market! 

I was in denial from the bullrun of Jan to Feb. My strategy was still in 'bullish mode' even if the market is going down.

I was doing a lot of errors. I encountered series of losses, revenge-trading my way to get back what I've lost. 

I was overtrading PLUS my trading pysche was fucked up.

There were trades that I put TOO MUCH allocation, ending up LOSING A LOT.

To make my journey more transparent, I'm sharing my mid-March realized loss:

March 16, 2018
Total Loss: PHP -47,509.50

I started 2018 with PHP 108,000.

I ended week 8 of 2018 with PHP 170,344.65.

My realized loss on week 11 (March 16) was PHP -47,509.50.

From +57% gain end of Feb, it went down to only +13% by March.

I gave back my gains to the market. Superman syndrome happened after Feb, then makabawi syndrome on March. 

A perfect recipe for disaster.

REALIZATIONS:

• When the market is bearish, trade setups only for downtrend plays. Do not go against the trend.
  There's no sense using uptrend plays in bearish market (except for outliers).
• Be defensive all the time.
• When there are no tradeable setups, it's much better not to trade.
  Capital preservation should be top priority. Staying in cash is still a position. 
• Manage risk the right way. Do not put heavy allocation especially when the setup is not good.
  Allocate only acceptable volume so when the stock goes otherwise, the risk is bearable.
• Trade when ready and available. Since I'm still employed, I find it challenging to manage my trades.
  There were a lot of impulse trades and some were executed via mobile.
• When experiencing a losing streak, manage negative emotions. Break the habit loop of overthinking and do something that will make me happy. Life is still good outside the stock market.
• Patiently wait for a 'bread and butter' setup. 

______________________________________________________________________________________________

The battle must continue. I need to at least survive during this bear market. If I can make some profits for the whole duration of the bear season, that will be an achievement. By then I can easily decide whether I can transition into fulltime trading. Let's see until end of 2018.

Sharing some of my significant trades lately:

$VUL bounce / momentum play

$NOW bounce play

$NOW momentum on 3rd day of bounce  

$VITA Round 1 & Round 2 

Multiyr-high / breakout play

______________________________________________________________________________________________

Do I consider myself as profitable?

I don't think so. A consistent and profitable trader is the one who losses small but can get winning trades consistently. No rushing to get results. No jackpots. Patiently waiting for the quality trades.

I'm not yet profitable.

I'm still learning. 

But soon enough, I will get there.

______________________________________________________________________________________________

More to follow.

Week 7 - Emotional Week

What an emotional week indeed. Here’s what happened to my Week 7:

• On Monday, I'd let go of strong stocks for a greedy play: $POPI. Sold partially on $WLCON and sold all $PIZZA for $POPI trade. On Tuesday, I entered $POPI again, anticipating for another run. But of course did not happen. No wins for $POPI.
• Traded $NOW on Tuesday, good entry at EOD, but the exit was a bit early. Sold it in the morning of Wed and sold it at strength. Overall $NOW trade gave me +10% port increase.
• Lesson for $NOW: 
• The best decision to sell positions is in the afternoon. Particularly 2pm / 2:30pm/ 3pm onwards. Be contented with the gain and overcome the feeling of being left out. There are a lot of things to be thankful for.
• Error trade on $PXP. Perhaps this trade was due to mixed emotions: got FOMO with $NOW since I sold too early, plus I put too much volume on this trade. I even sold my remaining $WLCON position thinking that this stock will go fast. Probably my biggest port allocation this 2018 at Php65.2k. Expecting a strong close, at the ceiling, but did not. Ended up cutting near the close. Total port damage is -4.39%. This is the biggest port loss next to my $ATN trade (-4.00%). 
• Lesson for $PXP: 
• Since the setup and parameters are acceptable, it's okay to buy as long as the allocation is controlled. Do not put too much allocation right away. Do not buy big chunks too early. The best decision again to buy is near the closing. Overcome the FOMO and do not be Superman.

Emotions for this week:

• Too much greed.
• Too much excitement.
• Superman syndrome. 

Total trades bought: 5 trades

Total trades sold: 6 trades

Open position: 1 stock

$NOW Buy/Sell Transactions:

$PXP Buy/Sell Transactions:

Feb 15 Day Change:

-5,294.61 Day Change
Due to $PXP error trade

End of week 7 port snap:

Still holding to 1 stock bought since Feb 1. 

More to follow.

Week 4 - $NOW What?

_____________________________________________________________________________

It's Monday and I just made one error trade.

_____________________________________________________________________________

$NOW Daily Chart
Jan 22, 2018 - Mon

$NOW 3-Minute Chart
(and trade transactions)

$NOW port allocation: 10.8%

$NOW %Gain/Loss: -5.76% 
Overall port damage: -0.62% 

Trade lesson/s: 
Never get too EXCITED. Do not CHASE. It's much better NOT TO TRADE rather than chasing flying stocks. 

I probably traded this because I was triggered by the movement during the morning session AND at the back of my head, someone's screaming: CEILING.

Do not jump into assumptions right away. Let the market speak for itself.

Again, it's best not to CHASE.